"Tariffs flying, yields rising, breadth cooling—markets are now a full-time juggling act!" 🤹📉📈
Weekly Newsletter 33
Intermarket view:
What it is? it provides how our major indices are performing against other market instruments like Gold, Dollar, Indian Bond market. Helps us to understand the money flow.
Nifty 50 - Bullish, Continuation buy
USDINR vs Nifty 50 - Neutral
GOLD vs Nifty 50 - Neutral
Nifty GS Composite vs Nifty 50 - Neutral
1-3 [Neutral] Equity has upper hand based on weekly close
Index Analysis
Nifty - Bullish
Active Bullish targets : 25196,25259
Active Bearish targets : NA
Support - 24747 and 24648
Resistance - 24983, 25071 and 25259
BankNifty : Neutral
Active Bullish targets : 56411, 55827 , 57458 negation below 54400
Active bearish targets : NA
Resistance - 55605 , 55827, 56141, 56773
Support - 55383, 54400, 54113 and 53596
🇮🇳 Market Outlook: Sector Rotation Amid Global Uncertainty
Macro Setup:
The EU tariff announcement arrived post-market hours, adding to existing global unease. Meanwhile, US long-term bond yields spiked through the week, keeping traders cautious.
Indian indices responded with high intraday volatility, posting sharp moves in both directions (~1% swings daily), yet continued to maintain a bullish posture, inching toward Nifty 25,200–300 and Bank Nifty ATH levels.
📊 Breadth Analysis:
Nifty: Breadth oscillating between neutral and overbought zones (medium-term), with long-term breadth still at extreme levels.
Bank Nifty: Medium- and long-term breadth remains overheated, with price action staying rangebound—a classic consolidation within strength.
IT Sector: Divergence emerging—oversold in the medium term, but still overbought on the longer timeframe, suggesting a potential inflection point.
📈 Relative Strength (RS) View:
Bank Nifty: RS remains neutral, consolidating around a breakout zone, indicating potential for continuation.
IT Sector: RS is neutral but nearing breakdown levels, suggesting cautious positioning.
Sector Rotation Likely: With major Nifty contributors (Banks & IT) in consolidation, rotational participation may drive the next leg up, especially in SMID, Metals, and other emerging sectors.
🔍 Small & Midcap (SMID) Trends:
Positive price structure continues with contributions from Defence, Infra, and Realty.
However, RS shows signs of consolidation after an early trend—potentially a pause before a fresh move or early signs of a downcycle.
🔔 Key Levels to Watch (Daily Close Basis):
Nifty: 24,300
Bank Nifty: 54,600
⚖️ Conclusion:
Despite global macro uncertainty and rising US yields, India’s market setup supports continued upward momentum, led by sector rotation. Volatility is expected to persist, but buy-on-dips remains the dominant sentiment as long as breadth and key levels hold.
🧭A Mutual Fund Investor’s Tale"
🌩️ The Market Weather Report
The financial skies were a bit stormy:
Global clouds loomed with news of EU tariffs and rising US bond yields.
Geopolitical gusts (like Indo-Pak tension and ceasefire updates) added more wind to the sails.
Indian markets danced with volatility—some days soaring, others stalling—but still looking upward.
The market breadth, a measure of participation and strength, was showing signs of fatigue in the short term—but still strong in the long term.
🧘♂️ Disciplined Long term Investor : Calm Amid Chaos
Looked at the news and the charts. But instead of panic, he smiled.
“I’ve seen this movie before,” he said. “Markets breathe in and out. My SIP is my heartbeat, and I won’t skip a beat.”
He continued investing regularly, just as he had planned for his daughter’s education and his retirement. Volatility didn’t shake him—he knew SIPs love corrections, because they buy more when prices fall.
🚀 Big Question - New Investor want to enter in Mutual Fund game?
wondered aloud:
“Is this the right time to start? The markets seem high, the news is scary, and what if there’s a fall?”
Disciplined Long term Investor replied gently:
“That’s exactly why you should start. SIP isn’t about timing—it’s about time. And if you have long-term goals, the best time to start is always today. Just stay consistent.”
💡 The Strategy
For Disciplined Investors (Already Invested & SIPs Running):
✅ Stay the course—don’t pause SIPs
✅ Rebalance if needed based on asset allocation, not emotion
✅ Use dips or consolidations to top-up if possible
✅ Keep eyes on goals, not headlines
For New Investors (New or Planning to Invest):
✅ Start SIPs now—volatility helps you in the long run
✅ If you have lumpsum—use STP (Systematic Transfer Plan) to spread it out over 6–12 months
✅ Begin with diversified funds , Be Focused on Asset Allocation
✅ Keep expectations real and commit for the long haul
📜 The Moral of the Story:
Markets will swing, news will flash, and yields will rise—but goals don’t change.
So whether you're Disciplined old investor or New entrant in MF investment world, the mantra is clear:
Stay invested. Stay disciplined. Let compounding do the rest. 🌱💸📈
Connect with us for Mutual Fund Investments.