🤫 Bulls ka breakout tha blockbuster… par ab lag raha hai, sequel ka intezaar hai!” 🎬🐂📆

Weekly Newsletter 40

Jul 12, 2025

Intermarket view:

What it is? it provides how our major indices are performing against other market instruments like Gold, Dollar, Indian Bond market. Helps us to understand the money flow.

Nifty 50 - Neutral, Anchor column + Double bottom Sell

USDINR vs Nifty 50 - Neutral

GOLD vs Nifty 50 - Neutral

Nifty GS Composite vs Nifty 50 - Neutral

Overall Bullish view equities in overall neutralized environment.

Index Analysis

Nifty - Bearish
Active Bullish targets : 26382 negation below 25058
Active Bearish targets : 25149 and 25058 negation above 25670

Support - 25121 and 24970
Resistance - 25210,25450,25600 and 25924

On Nifty Daily chart , price coming near to previous anchor points [25080-25121] - crucial levels to watch out

BankNifty : Bearish

Active Bullish targets : 58759 negation close below 56141
Active bearish targets : 56546 and 56141 negation above 57500

Resistance - 57092,57320 and 57596
Support - 56864,56637 and 56321

🎯 A Survivorship bias - What You See Isn’t All There Is!
In WWII, analysts wanted to armor planes where bullet holes were visible — on the wings & tail. But statistician Abraham Wald said:
👉 “You’re only looking at planes that survived. The real danger lies where you see no damage — because hits there crashed the plane.”
💡 Same goes for stock investing.
We only see success stories — top-performing stocks, viral IPOs, multibaggers.
But we forget the duds, the delisted, the forgotten, multibeggers.
📉 Don’t chase only past winners blindly.

Indian Market Outlook: Cooling Off Before the Climb?

Over the past two weeks, Indian benchmark indices have experienced a grinding corrective move, resulting in a medium-term breadth cool-off below mid-levels, while long-term breadth remains firmly in overbought territory. This structure suggests that the market is likely undergoing a healthy pullback within a broader uptrend.

🔼 Bullish Momentum Still Intact

Despite the pause, the broader setup continues to support the possibility of a fresh rally, with the next leg toward new all-time highs (ATH) being fuelled by:

Large Private Banks – riding on robust balance sheets and liquidity support.
Pharma – showing improved relative strength and rotation potential.
IT Sector – While TCS results disappointed, the short-term bullish view remains, favoring a buy-the-dip strategy on select counters.
Commodities (Metals & Cement) – gaining traction from improving global demand cues and infrastructure tailwinds.

🧭 Strategy Going Forward:

Maintain a bullish bias, especially in sectors showing strong relative strength.
Use breadth indicators to fine-tune entries and avoid exhaustion points.
Treat this cool-off as a pause, not a reversal, with selective accumulation on dips for trading.

If you have any feedback or suggestions regarding the weekly market analysis — including topics you'd like covered in technical analysis, trading strategies, or sectoral insights — please feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.

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